Niagara’s unemployment rate takes ‘moderate’ jump

Decline in labour force seen in usually strong summer months

Following a month that saw Niagara report record-low unemployment numbers, July took a slight turn, with an increase in the unemployment rate as well as decreases in participation and employment.

But it was not just Niagara experiencing less than “optimal” trends, with Ontario and Canada reporting similar numbers.

Unadjusted, Ontario and Canada’s unemployment rate increased about half a percentage point, whereas Niagara saw a smaller change, increasing to 4.5 per cent from 4.3 per cent month-overmonth.

All in all, it was minimal — especially compared to March, when that number sat at 7.1 per cent.

“Right across Canada you had a slightly increased unemployment rate,” said Vivian Kinnaird, chief executive officer and strategy lead of Niagara Workforce Planning Board.

“To be honest, it’s fairly moderate in all … because we’re still in a fairly tight labour market.”

But unlike the rest of the country, Niagara saw a larger decline in its labour force (which includes all employed and unemployed people), with the region reporting a 3,500 drop from June to July.

Kinnaird said Niagara also saw decreases in employment, with 1,200 fewer people in full-time work and 2,700 fewer part-time workers, month-over-month.

Those numbers are not typical for this time of year.

“We’re seeing a decrease in employment which was pronounced for men and women aged 25 to 54. Usually, up until 2021, we see employment increase between June and July for both men and women,” she said.

Another element that is historically different — and an area Kinnaird said is being investigated — is an increase in the number of people no longer in the labour force, meaning they are not working and not looking for work. Predominantly, that group was men and women in the retirement age (above 65) and women aged 25 to 54.

“That’s the contrasting historical trends,” said Kinnaird, adding that month-over-month, Niagara tends to see decreases in that area. “We’ve got some interesting anomalies there that we’re going to keep an eye on.”

And part of that is understanding and asking why, which was a question in the labour force survey for July.

From July 2016 to July 2021, women aged 25 to 54 selected the No. 1 reason for not being in the workforce, despite wanting to work, as “personal/family responsibilities.”

Prior this year, that number sat in the low 30 per cent, but it jumped to 45.3 per cent last month.

Kinnaird said it is unclear whether that increase has to do with socio-economic factors, such as a shortage of early childhood educators or a decrease in people working in long-term care, which are impacting families — specifically women — the most.

“That’s what to keep an eye on going forward. It’s not just the numbers themselves, it’s the details in the numbers and how it’s been reflected on other pandemic recovery efforts,” said Kinnaird.

Retail trade, accommodation and food services, as well as health care remain the top three industries seeking employees.

The strongest industry last month was manufacturing, which added 1,700 jobs, as well as information, culture and recreation which saw an increase of 1,400.

The biggest drop month-overmonth came in the business, building and other support services industry with 2,800 fewer people employed, followed by professional, scientific and technical services with a decrease of 1,700 and 1,000 fewer in the health care and social assistance industry.

Other highlights from the July report include decreases in the unemployment rates for women and youths, but an increase in men month-over-month.